The Threshold Temperature and Lag Effects on Daily Excess Mortality in Harbin, China: A Time Series Analysis

Hanlu Gao, Li Lan, Chao Yang, Jian Wang, Yashuang Zhao


Background: A large number of studies have reported the relationship between ambient temperature and mortality. However, few studies have focused on the effects of high temperatures on cardio-cerebrovascular diseases mortality (CCVDM) and their acute events (ACCVDM).

Objective: To assess the threshold temperature and time lag effects on daily excess mortality in Harbin, China.

Methods: A generalized additive model (GAM) with a Poisson distribution was used to investigate the relative risk of mortality for each 1 °C increase above the threshold temperature and their time lag effects in Harbin, China.

Results: High temperature threshold was 26 °C in Harbin. Heat effects were immediate and lasted for 0–6 and 0–4 days for CCVDM and ACCVDM, respectively. The acute cardiovascular disease mortality (ACVDM) seemed to be more sensitive to temperature than cardiovascular disease mortality (CVDM) with higher death risk and shorter time lag effects. The lag effects lasted longer for cerebrovascular disease mortality (CBDM) than CVDM; so did ACBDM compared to ACVDM.

Conclusion: Hot temperatures increased CCVDM and ACCVDM in Harbin, China. Public health intervention strategies for hot temperatures adaptation should be concerned.


Mortality; Hot temperature; Extreme heat; Weather; Cardiovascular system; Stroke; China

doi: 10.15171/ijoem.2017.979

 pISSN: 2008-6520
 eISSN: 2008-6814

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